The first decision is a telling one

When people run for President of the United States of America, they spend a lot of time making speeches, informing voters of their goals and their vision for America. They tell you what they are going to do in the future. Then the opposition usually takes it upon themselves to tell you what they have done in the past.

However, you can get a glimpse of the type of person the candidate is, and the type of decisions he (or someday she) will make, when confronted with choosing a running mate. You see what they consider important,and what type of person they want running with them.

In the case of 2008, apparently Senator Barack Obama considers it important to be connected to career politicians and seen as a Washington, D.C. insider. For a candidate to build his entire campaign on the words "hope and change" to then pick a running mate who is so clearly the antithesis to them has to be a bit... deflating for his followers. Senator Joe Biden has a long and distinguished career as an elected official - emphasis on the long, as he has been an elected official for 36 years. He's been a politician for longer than - 40%? - of the voting age population has even been alive. Apparently Barack Obama thinks he needs to reach out more to the liberal, white, upper-middle class, East Coast, straight-Democrat-ticket voters of America.

On the other hand, Senator McCain caught everyone off guard in his masterful pick of Alaska Governor Sarah Palin. Senator McCain, with his pick, told America this - I value women, I value blue collar workers (her parents were and her husband is). I value hard work, I value family (she has 5 kids!), I value Life, and I value the ability to stand up for what's right (her first act as governor was to put an end to the state of Alaska's participation in the ridiculous "Bridge to Nowhere," calling it a "waste of money.")

In other words, McCain showed America hope. And change. And he didn't resort to mere rhetoric, but demonstrated it through actions.

Like I said, the first decision is a telling one.

Angst

There's been a lot of hand wringing and angst amongst my fellow conservatives over the rise of John McCain as the presumptive GOP nominee. Some have even seen his rise as the death of conservatism.

Do these people really think so little of our cause? Our beliefs? Their fellows?

I understand where the angst comes from - but I'm not here to argue about whether a "good" conservative can vote for McCain or if one who does is actually a "bad" conservative (or, as is implied in many quarters, not a conservative at all).

My beef with these arguments, at the end of the day, is how demeaning and belittling they are to those of us who are in the conservative "movement" (whatever THAT even means).

How in the world can people imply, with a straight face, that conservative beliefs and ideals will fly out the window with the election of John McCain? How in the world can they think so little of the various causes and supporters of those causes in America, to think they would just *poof* disappear?

So on Wednesday, November 5, the pro-life movement will cease to exist? The tax reform movement will cease to exist? The home-school network, the private property rights, the defense of marriage, the kill-the-death-taxers will just crumple and die? They will just curl up into a fetal position and take whatever whipping given to them by the Moderate Establishment President John McCain and the RNC?

Give me a break. Anyone who tries to make that argument, in my opinion, simply doesn't have a real working knowledge of these groups, the people running them, the members and most importantly the passion that drives them.

I don't know if John McCain will be good for the conservative movement. Maybe (likely?) he won't be. But I'm not prepared to write the obituary for the conservative movement yet. Maybe, just maybe, we've been too fragmented and he'll accomplish something unforeseen - he'll unite us.

The importance of cross tabs

So many people look at a poll of public opinion and just see the top numbers. Candidate A has 55%, Candidate B has 45%. They never look into the particulars of where that support comes from (otherwise known as cross tabs) for each candidate.

That's why this quote from the March 5 edition of the New York Times is so intriguing:

"Mrs. Clinton maintained an edge over Mr. Obama among women, whites, Hispanics, older voters and those with less education. Mr. Obama continued to edge her out among men, blacks, younger voters and those with more education, according to an exit poll conducted statewide by Edison/Mitofsky for the National Election Pool."

So she has trouble with blacks and younger voters, and he has trouble with older voters. This is significant. If she gets the nomination, all his new support is disenfranchised and doesn’t go to the polls. If he gets the nomination, the old folks look to McCain because "he’s one of them."

Hmmm. While November 2008 is a long ways off, suddenly I’m thinking it might not be so bad to be a Republican.

And we're off...

Obama. Huckabee.

The Republicans:

I admit that in these closing days leading up to Iowa, I thought that Mitt's Millions would close the gap and maybe put him back on top of Gov. Huckabee. McCain must be dancing (or, well, whatever McCain would do if he would dance) in New Hampshire right now. Despite coming in third/fourth at the caucuses, McCain has been pulling back in New Hampshire, and seeing his biggest rival in NH (Romney) fall is only good news for him. As Mort Kondracke mentioned, it's like a baseball pennant race - you always want the guy who is ahead of you in the division to lose, so you can move forward. Huckabee should certainly spend some more time in New Hampshire now, but he also needs to pour a lot of time and money into South Carolina. And let me tell you - Mitt's folks on the ground in SC will not take this lying down. Huckabee for President better be ready for the gloves to come off down there, and be prepared to get their knuckles a little bloody too.

The Democrats:

But Obama. Wow. This is a huge day in American politics - an African-American man won Iowa. You know, Iowa. The 95% Caucasian state in the middle of the country. It's not like Iowa has a huge minority population to put Barack Hussein Obama over the top. HRC and her minions must be shaking in their boots right now. Oh yeah - and the son of the mill worker is done. D.O.A. One silver lining I am hoping that comes out of this Obama win is it hopefully puts the first (final?) nail in the coffin of the divisive politics of race that come from the ilk of Sharpton and Jesse Jackson. I hope they see his win as what it is - a rejection of them, not as black men, but as liberal, fear-and-hate mongering cretins.

He gets this one right

I think it's well-documented (OK, well maybe not documented, but certainly well KNOWN) how I feel about Senator John McCain. But being intellectually honest means admitting when someone totally nails an issue on the head, even if you don't necessarily like that person:

ARLINGTON, VA -- U.S. Senator John McCain made the following statement today: Senator Clinton said that believing General Petraeus' testimony requires a 'willing suspension of disbelief.' I think it willingly suspends disbelief to not repudiate an advertisement run by a radical left wing organization that impugns and dishonors the integrity of a man who has served his nation with dedication all of his life. If you're not tough enough to repudiate a scurrilous, outrageous attack such as that, then I don't know how you're tough enough to be President of the United States.

Hat Tip: The Corner