The first decision is a telling one

When people run for President of the United States of America, they spend a lot of time making speeches, informing voters of their goals and their vision for America. They tell you what they are going to do in the future. Then the opposition usually takes it upon themselves to tell you what they have done in the past.

However, you can get a glimpse of the type of person the candidate is, and the type of decisions he (or someday she) will make, when confronted with choosing a running mate. You see what they consider important,and what type of person they want running with them.

In the case of 2008, apparently Senator Barack Obama considers it important to be connected to career politicians and seen as a Washington, D.C. insider. For a candidate to build his entire campaign on the words "hope and change" to then pick a running mate who is so clearly the antithesis to them has to be a bit... deflating for his followers. Senator Joe Biden has a long and distinguished career as an elected official - emphasis on the long, as he has been an elected official for 36 years. He's been a politician for longer than - 40%? - of the voting age population has even been alive. Apparently Barack Obama thinks he needs to reach out more to the liberal, white, upper-middle class, East Coast, straight-Democrat-ticket voters of America.

On the other hand, Senator McCain caught everyone off guard in his masterful pick of Alaska Governor Sarah Palin. Senator McCain, with his pick, told America this - I value women, I value blue collar workers (her parents were and her husband is). I value hard work, I value family (she has 5 kids!), I value Life, and I value the ability to stand up for what's right (her first act as governor was to put an end to the state of Alaska's participation in the ridiculous "Bridge to Nowhere," calling it a "waste of money.")

In other words, McCain showed America hope. And change. And he didn't resort to mere rhetoric, but demonstrated it through actions.

Like I said, the first decision is a telling one.

Do you know enough?

The importance of cross tabs

So many people look at a poll of public opinion and just see the top numbers. Candidate A has 55%, Candidate B has 45%. They never look into the particulars of where that support comes from (otherwise known as cross tabs) for each candidate.

That's why this quote from the March 5 edition of the New York Times is so intriguing:

"Mrs. Clinton maintained an edge over Mr. Obama among women, whites, Hispanics, older voters and those with less education. Mr. Obama continued to edge her out among men, blacks, younger voters and those with more education, according to an exit poll conducted statewide by Edison/Mitofsky for the National Election Pool."

So she has trouble with blacks and younger voters, and he has trouble with older voters. This is significant. If she gets the nomination, all his new support is disenfranchised and doesn’t go to the polls. If he gets the nomination, the old folks look to McCain because "he’s one of them."

Hmmm. While November 2008 is a long ways off, suddenly I’m thinking it might not be so bad to be a Republican.

And we're off...

Obama. Huckabee.

The Republicans:

I admit that in these closing days leading up to Iowa, I thought that Mitt's Millions would close the gap and maybe put him back on top of Gov. Huckabee. McCain must be dancing (or, well, whatever McCain would do if he would dance) in New Hampshire right now. Despite coming in third/fourth at the caucuses, McCain has been pulling back in New Hampshire, and seeing his biggest rival in NH (Romney) fall is only good news for him. As Mort Kondracke mentioned, it's like a baseball pennant race - you always want the guy who is ahead of you in the division to lose, so you can move forward. Huckabee should certainly spend some more time in New Hampshire now, but he also needs to pour a lot of time and money into South Carolina. And let me tell you - Mitt's folks on the ground in SC will not take this lying down. Huckabee for President better be ready for the gloves to come off down there, and be prepared to get their knuckles a little bloody too.

The Democrats:

But Obama. Wow. This is a huge day in American politics - an African-American man won Iowa. You know, Iowa. The 95% Caucasian state in the middle of the country. It's not like Iowa has a huge minority population to put Barack Hussein Obama over the top. HRC and her minions must be shaking in their boots right now. Oh yeah - and the son of the mill worker is done. D.O.A. One silver lining I am hoping that comes out of this Obama win is it hopefully puts the first (final?) nail in the coffin of the divisive politics of race that come from the ilk of Sharpton and Jesse Jackson. I hope they see his win as what it is - a rejection of them, not as black men, but as liberal, fear-and-hate mongering cretins.